Montenegro vs England betting preview
The Montenegrins come into this game knowing they must win here to have any hopes of qualifying. After a 0-0 draw at Wembley in October last year where they suffocated much of England’s play, they must now come out looking to score.
Can Montenegro face a team of England’s quality, with the pressure qualification on them and the need for victory, and come out with a result? The quality of players such as Fiorentina Stevan Jovetic and Juventus striker Mirko Vucinic (Montenegro’s captain) can certainly bring them moments, but a sustained attacking performance is a different matter. Their five goals in six group games does not inspire confidence.
Their recent qualification form is poor too. Whether their current position in the group is justified remains to be seen after a home draw against Bulgaria was followed by defeat away in Wales, the team who currently sit in bottom place.
Montenegro vs England Betting odds
The Toffees go into the lunchtime kick off on the back of just 1 defeat in 6 games in all competitions and they put in a good defensive display against Man City during that loss. Although it was a frustrating transfer window again for Everton fans, they still look like a solid mid table side that could mount a push for Europe and will give Liverpool a tough game. Tim Cahill has a great ability of scoring important goals and so the forward is looking like a good bet at 8.0 with Bet365 to open the scoring on the day. Although the Toffees do go into the game slight underdogs at 3.3 with Coral, the tight nature of derby games between these two means that it may not be a bad bet at all. Everton have conceded on average of 1 goal a game this season and scored an average of 1 a game also, therefore betting on a 1-1 draw should give a decent return at 7.0 from Ladbrokes.
England require a point in Montenegro to confirm qualification to Poland/Ukraine 2012, and will expect at least that here. Their last game of the qualifying stages takes them on their travels, where they have been most successful as of late. Three wins from three away matches in these group stages, scoring eight goals and only conceding one, makes 1.75 look a decent price on the Three Lions.
Manager Fabio Capello is expected to pair Manchester United teammates Danny Welbeck and Wayne Rooney up front together, with Welbeck leading the line. Welbeck has already shown this season that he can bring performances out of Rooney, taking the forward role very similarly to Javier Hernandez, making runs and space that Rooney thrives from.
The midfield is full of options, with prematurely written of Frank Lampard finding his scoring boots for Chelsea last weekend with a hat trick, whilst Scott Parker offer deeper options for shielding the defence.
More should be read from the performance away in Bulgaria than at home to Wales in the context of this match. Capello seems to have drilled his side into a perfect shape for tactics on their travels, and England can carry that on here.
Match Prediction: ENGLAND WIN – 1.75 Stan James
The overriding factor in this game is the quality England possess. With Montenegro looking for a win, an England goal will force them out into attack, and it’s hard to argue against England scoring when you consider their away record and their attacking talent. Welbeck, Young and Rooney have been in terrific form for Manchester United, and that pace on the counter could lead England to glory. The side also showed in Bulgaria that they were comfortable picking teams off, after absorbing early pressure before exploiting the gaps left by their opponents.
That away form is hard to ignore too. Eight goals in three away fixtures suggests they have adapted to the conditions they have met, and thrived. Montenegro themselves have fallen apart in recent group fixtures, with the draw to Bulgaria and defeat against Wales, and are there for the taking.
With all this in mind, the markets could be too weighted towards a tight game. 2.15 is a great price for over 2.5 goals, a value bet with England’s scoring record and Montenegro’s need for a result.
Danny Welbeck is also well priced, will be the real striker in England’s XI and could be value at 8.5 for the first goal.
Montenegro – 5.5 Bet 365
Draw – 3.5 Sky Bet
England – 1.75 Stan James
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