Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid Betting Preview
Back a draw in 90 minutes in the Champions League final
It was a disappointing end to an impressive domestic season for Real Madrid, who finished one point behind Barcelona in second place in La Liga with 90 points, their best tally in the last three seasons. Zinedine Zidane’s men ended strongly with only one defeat from their final 17 games in all competitions, including their last 12 league games. They finished two points ahead of Saturday’s opponents Atletico Madrid, and they’ll be hoping to maintain their superiority of their local rivals with a Champions League victory at the weekend.
The Blancos scored in all but three of their last 29 games in all competitions and netted a stunning tally of 137 goals over the course of the season. Apart from a 2-0 away defeat to Wolfsburg in their quarter-final first leg, Real’s Champions League form has been superb, scoring eight goals in their six games since the first knockout stage and 27 in total. Their defence has also been excellent, keeping five clean sheets in their last seven games in all competitions and nine in their last 15. Real Madrid have featured in 13 Champions League finals, winning ten, with their most recent triumph coming over Atletico back in 2014. I think Zidane’s men will be made to work for their 11th trophy, and I’m backing a draw in normal time.
Atletico Madrid had yet another remarkable season under Diego Simeone, finishing three points behind title winners Barcelona and qualifying for their second Champions League final in three seasons. With only one victory in their last three in all competitions, including a 2-1 defeat to Levante on the penultimate weekend of the domestic season, Simeone’s men will head into the final on the back of a short poor run of form, and with only five goals in their last six Champions League games, they’ll be looking for a big performance on Saturday night.
In April, Los Colchoneros conceded only four goals in nine games in all competitions, including four straight 1-0 wins. They defeated both Barcelona and Bayern Munich in the previous two rounds and proved their ability to outplay world class opposition both in defence and in attack. Simeone’s side have reached the final twice in the last three seasons and three times in their history, but they’ve never won the competition. I think they’ll struggle to break down a resilient Real Madrid defence and I’m backing them to lose the tie in extra time.
After beating Zinedine Zidane’s men 1-0 at the Bernabeu back in February, Atletico’s recent record against Real is promising, with three wins for their last eight meetings. However, in the 28 encounters between the two sides since the 1993/1994 La Liga season, Atletico have won only four. Three of the last six meetings have ended in draws (in 90 minutes) and I think we’re likely to see another draw on Saturday.
Under 2.5 goals – Yes 3/5
In seven of the last ten meetings there have been under 2.5 goals, and with two impeccable defences on show on Saturday night I think it’s unlikely that we’ll see three goals in normal time. Atletico have kept 14 clean sheets in their last 21 games in all competitions, with Real keeping nine in their last 15. I’m backing under 2.5 goals in 90 minutes priced at 3/5.
Both teams to score in 90 minutes – No 4/5
This has been the case in four of the last eight meetings between the two sides, and I don’t think we’re likely to see many goals on Saturday night. I’m backing a 0-0 stalemate in normal time, but if either side was to win I’d back Real Madrid, and I would fancy them to win to nil. Back odds of 4/5 for at least one side to keep a clean sheet.
Match odds – Draw 11/5
Both sides have had excellent seasons despite not winning a domestic trophy. The final in 2014 was a hard-fought encounter between two evenly-matched sides, and history shows just how close games involving these two teams can be. With both sides boasting impressive defensive records this season I’m backing the Champions League final to end in a draw, priced at 11/5, and subsequently go to extra time. A Real Madrid win in 90 minutes is priced at 31/20, with odds of 8/11 for Zidane’s side to lift the trophy. You can collect odds of 85/40 for Atletico to win the tie in normal time, or 11/10 for Simeone’s men to win their first Champions League trophy.
Writer’s prediction: Real Madrid 0 – 0 Atletico Madrid (Real win AET)
*Odds correct at the time of publication, click here for all the latest odds on upcoming football matches.